Leading Watch Experts Share Their 2026 Market Outlook

The past year presented considerable challenges for the horology sector, marked by economic uncertainties, fluctuating gold prices, and evolving market dynamics. Facing these headwinds, industry leaders convened at events like Dubai Watch Week, where Breitling CEO Georges Kern characterized the situation as a 'perfect storm,' demanding resilience and performance from brands.

As the industry looks toward 2026, experts anticipate several key trends and shifts. Oliver R. Müller of LuxeConsult highlights the enduring dominance of a few major players—Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille, and Cartier—which continue to outperform the broader market. Meanwhile, Sean Song, a vintage watch dealer, expects a rise in design-focused timepieces, unique case finishes, and intricate bracelets. He also foresees a renewed interest in A. Lange & Söhne in the pre-owned market due to a noticeable price discrepancy compared to new high-end models. Paul Engel, a collector, predicts a steady strengthening of iconic vintage Rolex sports models and increased price differentiation for high-quality vintage pieces. He also suggests a potential cooling in the rapid appreciation of brands like F.P. Journe and a greater emphasis on independent brands with established reputations.

Further insights into 2026 reveal that the independent watch sector may experience ownership changes and financial restructuring, which could either spark innovation through new investments or lead to unfavorable outcomes if profitability overshadows artistic integrity, as noted by Asher Rapkin of Collective Horology. Yoni Ben-Yehuda from Material Good foresees a continuation of bold and unexpected colors in watch designs, alongside the increasing market penetration of independent brands as their infrastructure matures. He also anticipates a resurgence in vintage Audemars Piguet Bamboo and Cobra models, as well as a renewed interest in overlooked complications such as jumping hours and dual time zones. The overall sentiment is that brands demonstrating strong identities, clear iconography, and consistent pricing strategies will thrive, while others must swiftly adapt to the changing market or face ongoing struggles.

The luxury watch industry, currently navigating a dynamic and complex global environment, is poised for a transformative year in 2026. Despite the challenges of economic volatility, the sector continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and innovation. The insights from leading experts underscore a collective belief in the power of adaptability, creativity, and strategic foresight. This period of evolution serves as a powerful reminder that true value and enduring appeal in any market are ultimately found in unwavering quality, authenticity, and the pursuit of excellence. The future of horology shines brightly for those who embrace change and commit to pushing boundaries, inspiring enthusiasts and collectors worldwide with each tick of the clock.